Demands for Upfield Line track duplication and line extension to Wallan grow

For the second time in a week residents in Melbourne’s north gathered at Gowrie Station in Fawkner calling for the Andrews Government to duplicate the line to Upfield and extend it north to Craigieburn and Wallan.

Now is the time for the State Government to start work on upgrading the Upfield line. The first stage would be upgrading the single track between Gowrie and Upfield stations to duplicated track done as a priority. Upgrade of Upfield station to dual platform should be part of this work and build the Campbellfield Station, which would provide good public transport access for Campbellfield Plaza.

A second stage would be extending the tracks along the Somerton line to Roxburgh Park and to Craigieburn. This would require grade separation of the inland rail track at Roxburgh Park and incorporate station access at Roxburgh Park.

A third stage would involve extending the dual track, with electrification through Donnybrook and Mickleham to Wallan.

By 2031 the population north of Craigieburn in areas such as Kalkallo, Mickleham, Donnybrook, Beveridge and Wallan is projected to be between 90,000 and 100,000.

This is a matter of addressing social equity in providing good transport for the northern suburbs, with many of us having high car dependency, mortgage stress and cost of living pressures. Good public transport can ease some of that pressure.

Infrastructure Australia identified the importance of addressing the Melbourne outer northern suburbs to CBD transport capacity issues several years ago:

Problem

“The 2015 Australian Infrastructure Audit noted that by 2031 the Hume Freeway would become the most congested corridor in Victoria, with a total delay cost of around $172 million per year. The Audit also projects that demand for rail transit in the corridor, on the Craigieburn Line, will exceed capacity by a factor of four by 2031. In the absence of transport capacity improvements, the Audit indicates that daily vehicle movements on the Hume Freeway would grow from 43,100 in 2011 to 107,400 by 2031, making the rail line the most crowded in Melbourne.

“Traffic demand growth along the corridor is expected to be driven by population and employment growth in the area. Victorian Government projections indicate that population in the corridor is expected to almost double between 2015 and 2031, while the Northern Growth Corridor Plan indicates the corridor has the capacity to accommodate between 83,000 and 105,000 new jobs.”

Proposed initiative

“Develop options to address demand for transport services in the corridor.”

Infrastructure Australia report 2020 – See our report

There has been silence from the Andrews government on track duplication and extension to Wallan, even though they spent $5 million in 2018 (noted in budget papers) to produce the Somerton link report which has been kept under wraps since, with local MPs kept in the dark on its contents. (See email request for this report and response from Minister for Transport Infrastructure, September 2018)

The Andrews government promises improvement of frequency on the Upfield Line when the bottleneck in the city loop is resolved with the Metro tunnel opens. But they don’t say the increase in services will only be for peak times and will terminate at Coburg, so all the residents living further north will continue to miss out on any improvement.

Trains will continue to be short shunted on an as needs basis at Coburg so Metro trains can meet its statistics commitments for level of service.

Addressing the bottleneck of the single track between Gowrie and Upfield is the only way to expand increased frequency to all residents along the train line.

As part of the State’s big build, Major Roads Victoria  have just spent $518 million on a 4.5km stretch of the M80 ring road from Sydney Road to Edgars Road that includes where the Craigieburn bypass meets the ring road. 

The 2019 Rail Futures study called for Upfield Line Track Duplication and extension to Craigieburn by 2024, and double track extension and electrification to Wallan by 2028.

Climate Action Merribek, one of our member organisations, noted the drop in the Labor vote in 2022 across the northern suburbs within the northern transport corridor and proposed that silence on improving public transport may have contributed to that result.

Where is the investment in upgrading the rail transport for the north?

Notes on the Rail Network Development Plan and demographics

Some notes from Network Development Plan – Metropolitan Rail (December 2012 as updated in 2016)

The Network Development Plan sets out stages and priorities for development of Melbourne’s suburban rail network.

The plan sets out 4 stages, and we are currently in Stage 2 of the plan. It is possible for elements of the plan to be delayed or moved forward according to political priorities and other projects. The extension from South Morang to Mernda was in stage 4 to be done in the early 2030s but a local campaign and political decision brought this project forward, and was completed in 2019.

Just to note: there is no mention of re-instatement of Campbellfield Station in the plan.

Stage 2 (within 10 years) – ie 2012-2022):

– Upfield second platform
Note: Stage 2 includes Metro tunnel, forecast to open in 2025. When the Metro tunnel opens, 6 services an hour at peak time on the Upfield line would involve interweaving a service from Upfield with a service terminating either at Coburg or Gowrie. The Second Platform at Upfield is also needed. See section 11.4. There is already a failure to implement a second platform at Upfield according to this timetable.

Stage 3 (within 15 years) – ie 2012-2027)

– Reinstatement of the Somerton to Upfield link

Note see sections 13.4 and 14.8. The line between Gowrie to Upfield would need duplication in combination with constructing the Somerton Link (See 14.8)

Stage 4 (within 20 years) – ie 2012-2032)

– Electrification projects to Geelong and Wallan

– Extension to Mernda and new stabling facilities (already completed in 2019)

Note: See section 15.6 (Sandringham to Wallan) and 16.3 (Electrification to Wallan)

Take note that stages do not denote specific years, and work for later stages is sometimes dependent on previous stages. Also note that projects can be advanced: the extension of South Morang to Mernda extension was a stage 4 project for early 2030s completed in 2019.

Population Growth north of Craigieburn

The Network Development Plan presupposes a certain level of residential development for demand for rail services, but may be greatly underestimating the development that has already taken place in the ten years since it was first written in 2012 and will take place in the next 20 years.. It also does not take into account more recent climate imperative to encourage mode share use from private vehicles to increased public and active transport.

So what are the present population forecasts for some of the important locations north of Craigieburn?

City of Hume, City of Whittlesea and Mitchell Shire all have substantial residential developments that would feed people into using the Upfield extension to Wallan. 

Kalkallo: 5,049 in 2021, forecast to be 9,624 in 2026, 13,145 in 2031, 17,369 by 2041.

Mickleham: 15,011 in 2021, forecast to be 24,486 in 2026, 34,312 in 2031, 47,670 by 2041.

Donnybrook: 2,232 in 2021, forecast to be 12,103 in 2026, 25,829 in 2031, 52,664 by 2041

Beveridge: 4,642 in 2021, Forecast for 2022 is 6,034, forecast to grow to 78,191 by 2041

Wallan: Forecast for 2022 is 16,444, forecast to grow to 49,871 by 2041.

Infrastructure Australia Northern suburbs Transport corridor early stage Proposal (first proposed 2016)

Melbourne outer northern suburbs to CBD capacity upgrade

“The 2019 Australian Infrastructure Audit forecasts that daily vehicle movements on the Hume Freeway would grow from 54,577 in 2016 to 105,682 by 2031.


“The Audit analysis shows that both AM and PM peak-period traffic volumes will be at capacity by 2031, causing congestion and significant delays along the corridor.

“Rail patronage is forecast to increase from 700 to 9,000 trips per AM peak on a weekday.”

Rail patronage could be much more than 9,000 if suburban rail was extended to Wallan and feeder bus routes and direct safe cycling routes with secure bike parking was provided at stations on the line. 

It is more important that the Upfield line be extended to Wallan before considering expansion of the Craigieburn bypass, which is already reaching congestion levels at certain peak times.

Providing good public transport to reduce car dependency for outer suburbs is important to reduce congestion on arterial roads like the Hume Freeway and Craigieburn Bypass as well as inner urban suburbs. It is also an equity issue for those who cannot drive in these new suburbs..

References

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